Monday morning. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Board is meeting today and tomorrow, with the cash rate decision due at 2:30pm AEST Tuesday 11 August. All 37 economists in a Reuters poll forecast a hold at 4 point 35 per cent. Interbank futures price the chance of a hike at just 4 per cent, down from a live 30 per cent probability three weeks ago. Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference and the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy follow at 3:30pm Tuesday. NAB Business Confidence for July releases 11:30am Tuesday, alongside the RBA call, and Roy Morgan Business Confidence has just printed a record-low 76. On the fashion floor, Sydney Morning Herald reports Effie Kats, Acler, Significant Other, Aston Studios and R M Williams have left David Jones for Myer, while Myer’s flagship Sydney beauty department is deep in a multi-million-dollar renovation. Fuel Day 8: 5-city petrol averages 207 point 5 cents per litre, diesel 247 point 3 cents, with peak still forecast 3 to 5 days away. Spring stock transition begins in 5 to 10 days across major fashion, footwear and homewares. Today’s Top 5 opens with Glassons at up to 60 per cent off dresses, jeans, knitwear and coats from the Australian-owned womens fashion label, and Strandbags at up to 50 per cent off handbags, backpacks and travel luggage from Samsonite, Antler, American Tourister and 60 plus brands through the Australian-owned specialist since 1927.
RBA Board Meets Today, Decision 24 Hours Away
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Board convened this morning for the first day of its August meeting, with the cash rate decision released at 2:30pm AEST Tuesday 11 August. According to Wayne Cole at Reuters (via Investing Live) on 6 August 2026, all 37 economists surveyed forecast the Board will hold the cash rate at 4 point 35 per cent. 27 of 36 respondents expect no change through end-December. Interbank futures agree: Property Investment Professionals put the hike probability at roughly 4 per cent, down from a live 20 to 30 per cent probability three weeks ago before the softer 30 July June quarter CPI print (headline 3 point 8 per cent, trimmed mean 3 point 6 per cent). All four major Australian banks now forecast a hold: OrbitRemit’s 6 August preview confirms Westpac, the last major-bank hawk, dropped its August hike call within a day of the CPI release.
The real event tomorrow is not the rate call. It is Governor Michele Bullock’s 3:30pm AEST press conference and the accompanying quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, which delivers a full forecast round with updated growth, inflation, unemployment and wage projections. Bullock’s 28 July Anika Foundation speech maintained explicit hiking bias, warning that the Board “is prepared to act as required, including by increasing the cash rate target further if required”. The question tomorrow is whether the language walks back to a neutral monitoring stance or holds firm. First rate cut consensus across all four majors remains 2027: NAB sees June 2027, ANZ September 2027, CBA mid-2027, Westpac August 2027. Household shopper impact: mortgage variable rates near 6 point 65 per cent lock in for another 6 weeks minimum. That certainty removes one household anxiety heading into the spring transition.
Business Confidence At Record Low
Finder’s latest Cash Rate Survey shows 92 per cent of economists forecast the RBA hold, aligning with market pricing. On the business side the mood is far darker. Roy Morgan Business Confidence for July fell 1 point 5 points to 76, the LOWEST LEVEL EVER RECORDED and the fourth consecutive month below 80. A record-low 25 point 5 per cent of Australian businesses believe now is a good time to invest in growth. It’s now below 80 across all six states for the first time. NAB’s Q2 Business Confidence, released 29 July, sat at negative 19 index points, 22 points below the long-run average.
NAB Business Confidence for July releases 11:30am AEST Tuesday 11 August, alongside the RBA call, per Trading Economics. Consumer confidence, however, has ticked up: ANZ-Roy Morgan’s early August print rose 3 point 5 points to 74 point 7 (still 15 point 9 points below the same week 2025). Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment for July lifted 4 point 1 per cent to 83 point 9 with 12-month family finance expectations surging 13 point 4 per cent. The gap between improving household mood and record-low business mood is the pressure squeezing retail margins right now, and that pressure is landing on final winter clearance markdowns.
Myer Takes Designers, David Jones Fights Back
The Australian department store war shifted this weekend. Rachel Wells at The Sydney Morning Herald on 5 August 2026 reports that Effie Kats, Acler, Significant Other and Aston Studios have ended their exclusive David Jones contracts to sign exclusively with Myer, joining R M Williams which ended its David Jones relationship 9 months ago. By the end of August, Myer will stock a total of 25 new womenswear brands including heritage label Oroton, Ena Pelly, elevated essentials brand Bayse, Morrison, RAEF the Label, Arcaa, Nude Lucy, UK brand Aligne, and LA activewear brand Varley. In beauty, Luxe Skincare, La Mer and Gilan Beauty have moved from David Jones to Myer, timed with a multi-million-dollar renovation of Myer’s flagship Sydney beauty department.
David Jones is fighting back with its own AW2026 brand additions. Ragtrader’s February report lists 40 new international and Australian labels including Jacquemus, Maison Margiela, Nour Hammour, Damson Madder, St. Agni, Courtney Zheng, Harris Tapper, Maggie Marilyn, Givenchy, Versace, Demellier, Aquazzura and Alaia. What this means for shoppers today: both department stores are running unusually deep late-winter clearance to hold market share through the transition window. Myer’s Spring Home Positional launch continues through Sunday 23 August (13 days from today) alongside its final winter markdowns. Watch for the David Jones EOFY Beauty and Homewares reset from Thursday 14 August as it counters Myer’s beauty push.
Fuel Day Eight: Peak Still Three To Five Days Away
Fuel excise restoration Day 8. The full 53 point 7 cents per litre excise (16 cent restoration plus 1 point 1 cent CPI indexation) took effect Monday 3 August. The ACCC 22nd weekly fuel price monitoring report puts the 5-city retail petrol average to 5 August at 207 point 5 cents per litre (+12 point 2 cents since 2 August) and diesel at 247 point 3 cents per litre (+10 point 3 cents). The next ACCC weekly report is due mid-week. RACQ’s Ian Jeffreys forecasts peak within 10 days of restoration, meaning peak lands somewhere between Wednesday 13 August and Friday 15 August. Today is Day 8, so peak is still 3 to 5 days away.
Monday tactical actions. First, before you leave the driveway check Fuel Check NSW, FuelWatch WA, FuelCheck TAS, MyFuel NT, MotorMouth or PetrolSpy. The cheapest-to-most-expensive gap in metro Sydney is 66 cents per litre. Second, if your vehicle handbook allows a grade drop from Premium 98 to U91 or E10, NRMA data has the grade spread at a record 26 point 5 cents per litre. On a 55-litre fill that is 14 dollars 60 cents saved. Third, if you can lock a 7-day price with 7-Eleven Fuel Lock, do it before Wednesday. On a peak week a 20 cent per litre difference on 55 litres is 11 dollars.
Spring Stock: The Final Winter Discount Week
ShopBack Australia’s late July savings analysis puts spring stock landing between 15 and 20 August across major fashion, footwear, homewares and lifestyle categories. Today is Monday 10 August, meaning the winter clearance window closes in 5 to 10 days. Retailers today are running some of the deepest headline discounts of the year on winter apparel, boots, thermals, coats, homewares and small appliances as they clear floor space. Household confidence data helps here: the Westpac Household Spending Indicator for June (released 4 August) came in at 0 point 8 per cent month on month, double the Westpac forecast, with Q2 volumes up 0 point 7 per cent quarter on quarter. Discretionary spending is holding up despite the record-low business mood.
Monday Top 5 Deals
Discount
GlassonsWomen's WearUp to 60 per cent off Glassons: dresses, jeans, knitwear, tops, coats, activewear and swim from the New Zealand founded, Australian owned womens fashion brand with over 60 Australian stores, Afterpay, Zip and free Australia wide shipping over 100 dollars.60%OFF2
StrandbagsBags & LuggageUp to 50 per cent off Strandbags: handbags, backpacks, wallets, travel luggage and accessories from over 60 leading brands including Samsonite, Antler, American Tourister, Fossil, Guess and Kate Hill through the Australian owned bag and luggage specialist since 1927, with Afterpay, Zip and click and collect from 200 plus stores.50%OFF3
Jac + JackFashionUp to 40 per cent off Jac + Jack: silks, cashmere knits, tailoring, mens shirts and premium basics from the Sydney founded Australian designer label since 2004, with Afterpay and free Australia wide shipping over 150 dollars.40%OFF4
Novo ShoesWomen's FootwearUp to 40 per cent off Novo Shoes: heels, boots, flats, sneakers, sandals and workwear footwear from the Australian owned womens shoe brand since 1980, with Afterpay, Zip and free Australia wide shipping over 79 dollars, and click and collect from over 100 stores nationwide.40%OFF5
Rebel SportSport & FitnessUp to 40 per cent off Rebel Sport: running shoes, activewear, football and cricket boots, gym equipment, bikes, cricket gear and hiking gear from over 800 brands through Australia’s largest sports retailer since 1985 (500 plus stores nationwide), with Afterpay, Zip and click and collect.40%OFFEvery store in Monday’s Top 5 is Australian owned or locally fulfilled. Every discount was verified against the store’s own live sale page this morning. None of it is Temu, Shein, AliExpress, Wish or any offshore marketplace dressed up as a local brand. Every product ships from an Australian warehouse and is backed by the Australian Consumer Law. Glassons leads today at up to 60 per cent off dresses, jeans, knitwear, tops, coats, activewear and swim from the Australian-owned womens fashion label with over 60 Australian stores. Strandbags follows at up to 50 per cent off handbags, backpacks, wallets and travel luggage from Samsonite, Antler, American Tourister, Fossil, Guess, Kate Hill and 60 plus brands through the Australian-owned specialist since 1927. Jac + Jack at up to 40 per cent off delivers silks, cashmere knits, tailoring and premium basics from the Sydney founded Australian designer label since 2004. Novo Shoes at up to 40 per cent off holds heels, boots, flats, sneakers, sandals and workwear footwear from the Australian owned womens shoe brand since 1980. Rebel Sport at up to 40 per cent off closes the Top 5 with running shoes, activewear, football and cricket boots, gym equipment, bikes and hiking gear from Australia’s largest sports retailer since 1985.
Other Deals Worth A Look
Beyond the Top 5, a handful of other Australian owned or locally fulfilled retailers are worth a Monday scroll for the final winter discount week. Koala (today’s Top 6 ticker pick) holds up to 30 per cent off mattresses, sofas, bed frames, dining tables and rugs from the Sydney founded Australian direct-to-consumer furniture brand since 2015. Veronika Maine continues at 30 per cent off tailoring, dresses and coats from the Sydney founded contemporary womens label. Williams Shoes is at 30 per cent off leather boots and business footwear. MyHouse continues its up to 50 per cent off homewares run. All Australian owned or locally fulfilled, all backed by the Australian Consumer Law.
Week Ahead
Five dates matter for Australian shopper wallets this week. Monday 10 August: RBA Monetary Policy Board meeting Day 1. Tuesday 11 August 2:30pm AEST: the RBA cash rate decision, priced at 96 per cent hold, followed by Governor Bullock’s 3:30pm press conference and the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy. Also Tuesday 11:30am AEST: NAB Business Confidence for July release. Wednesday 12 August: Commonwealth Bank FY26 full-year result and dividend announcement, watch mortgage book impairment guidance. Thursday 13 August: unemployment data for July release (last was 4 point 3 per cent). Between Friday 15 August and Wednesday 20 August: retailer spring stock transition begins across major fashion, footwear and homewares categories, closing the winter clearance window.
Our Take
Monday 10 August opens the pivot week. The RBA holds Tuesday, all four majors aligned, 96 per cent priced. That removes household mortgage anxiety for another 6 weeks and gives shopper confidence a marginal lift. Business confidence, meanwhile, is at record lows across all six states, and retailer margin pressure is producing genuinely deep final-winter clearance. Fuel remains the sharpest weekly wallet drag, 5-city petrol averaging 207 point 5 cents per litre with peak still 3 to 5 days away and the U91 to Premium 98 grade spread at a record 26 point 5 cents per litre. The Myer versus David Jones designer war is real, is producing unusually deep late-winter markdowns at both, and the outcome shapes the Australian fashion floor for the next 12 months. This is the last full discount week on winter apparel, boots, thermals, coats, homewares and small appliances. From Friday, floor space transitions to spring.
That is exactly why It’s On Sale exists. We track 35,000 Australian stores and 45,000 live sale products, every retailer Australian owned or locally fulfilled, every promotion audited daily against the store’s own price history. No trial traps, no hidden fees, no offshore marketplaces dressed up as a local brand. Today’s Sales shows every store currently running a discount in one place. The AI search reads the way real shoppers ask (try “winter coat clearance” or “hiking boots sale”). None of it is Temu, Shein, AliExpress, Wish or any offshore marketplace dressed up as a local brand. Browse Today’s Sales this Monday morning to hit the final winter clearance week at Australian retailers who stand behind the ticket and the Australian Consumer Law.