Tuesday, decision day. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Board announces the August cash rate call at 2:30pm AEST this afternoon after its two-day meeting. All 37 economists in a Reuters poll forecast a hold at 4 point 35 per cent, market pricing puts the hike probability at just 4 per cent, and all four major Australian banks are aligned on hold for the first time this year. Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference follows at 3:30pm alongside the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy with updated forecasts for growth, inflation, unemployment and wages. Before the rate call, Bullock testifies to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics at 9:30am AEST, then NAB Business Confidence for July releases at 11:30am AEST with a Trading Economics forecast of negative 6 (previous negative 5, Roy Morgan already at record-low 76). Fuel Day 9: FuelNow tracks 35 per cent of 7,129 stations at full 17 point 6 cent passthrough, median station 14 cents above late July, peak still 2 to 4 days away. Commonwealth Bank FY26 full-year result tomorrow, IG forecasts a final dividend of 2 dollars 65 cents fully franked. Today’s Top 5 opens with Princess Polly at up to 80 per cent off dresses, tops, jeans and coats from the Gold Coast founded Australian womens fashion brand, and Baku Swimwear at up to 70 per cent off bikinis, one pieces and resort wear from the Sydney based Australian swim label since 1998.
RBA Decision Day: 2:30pm AEST
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Board announces its August cash rate decision at 2:30pm AEST today after wrapping its two-day meeting. According to Wayne Cole at Reuters via Investing Live on 6 August 2026, all 37 economists surveyed forecast a hold at 4 point 35 per cent. 27 of the 36 respondents see no change through end-December. Interbank futures agree: CommSec’s Week Ahead has the hike probability at just 5 per cent, down from a live 30 per cent probability three weeks ago before the softer 30 July June-quarter CPI print (headline 3 point 8 per cent, trimmed mean 3 point 6 per cent). All four majors are now aligned on hold, per PolicyRix on 4 August: Westpac dropped its August hike call within a day of the CPI release.
The real event this afternoon is not the rate call. It is Governor Michele Bullock’s 3:30pm AEST press conference and the accompanying quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, which delivers a full forecast round with updated growth, inflation, unemployment and wage projections. Bullock’s 28 July Anika Foundation speech maintained explicit tightening bias, warning that the Board “is prepared to act as required, including by increasing the cash rate target further if required”. The question this afternoon is whether the language walks back to a neutral monitoring stance. First rate cut consensus across all four majors remains 2027: NAB sees June 2027, ANZ September 2027, CBA mid-2027, Westpac August 2027. Household shopper impact: if the hold lands, mortgage variable rates near 6 point 65 per cent stay locked in for another 6 weeks minimum. Sarah Farnsworth at The Sydney Morning Herald on 10 August reports the ASX slid 0 point 3 per cent Monday and is set to dip further on RBA day, with 3 point 3 million mortgaged households waiting on the result.
NAB Business Confidence for July at 11:30am AEST
Trading Economics confirms NAB Business Confidence for July releases at 11:30am AEST today, hours before the RBA call. June printed at negative 5 (up 9 points from May’s negative 14) and the Trading Economics forecast for July is negative 6. Any print worse than negative 6 confirms retailer margin compression is deepening; any print better than negative 5 signals early spring optimism. NAB’s Q2 Business Confidence, released 29 July, sat at negative 19 index points, 22 points below the long-run average, per NAB Economy and Markets. Westpac’s Week Ahead preview captures the mood in two words: “Conditions sluggish, confidence fragile”.
Roy Morgan Business Confidence for July has already printed a record-low 76, down 1 point 5 points, per Roy Morgan Research, the fourth consecutive month below 80 and the LOWEST LEVEL EVER RECORDED in the survey. A record-low 25 point 5 per cent of Australian businesses believe now is a good time to invest in growth, and confidence has fallen below 80 across all six states for the first time. The gap between improving household mood (ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 74 point 7 early August, up 3 point 5 points) and record-low business mood is the pressure squeezing retail margins right now, and that pressure is landing directly on final-winter clearance markdowns today.
Bullock Testifies to Parliament at 9:30am
Before the rate decision, Governor Michele Bullock testifies to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics at 9:30am AEST today per Westpac IQ’s 10 August Week Ahead. This is the traditional biannual appearance and typically runs 3 hours with questions from committee members across all parties. Expect probing on the persistence of services inflation, the labour market at 4 point 3 per cent unemployment, household spending resilience (June retail up 0 point 8 per cent month on month, double Westpac forecast), and the credibility of the Board’s continued tightening bias when all four majors have priced hold through year-end. Bullock’s language pattern this morning will pre-signal the tone of the 3:30pm press conference.
What shoppers should watch. If Bullock walks back the tightening bias to a genuinely neutral stance, mortgage market pricing shifts earlier cuts into late 2026, which would put marginal upward pressure on discretionary spending in the November-December Christmas quarter. If she holds the hawkish line, retailers price the current final-winter clearance window as the last discount opportunity before spring stock lands from Friday 15 August. The clearance markdowns Australian shoppers see today are being set with that outcome in mind.
Fuel Day Nine: FuelNow Tracker Live
Fuel excise restoration Day 9. The FuelNow live tracker (updated 11 August 2026) reports the full 17 point 6 cent per litre passthrough is now priced in at 35 per cent of 7,129 monitored stations, with the median station sitting 14 cents per litre above its own late-July price. Diesel: 44 per cent of stations at full passthrough, median +16 point 5 cents per litre. ACCC’s 22nd weekly fuel monitoring report puts the 5-city retail petrol average to 5 August at 208 cents per litre (+7 per cent week on week) and diesel at 247 cents per litre (+6 per cent week on week), per FuelPlan.gov.au. The next ACCC weekly report drops today or tomorrow (the 23rd weekly monitoring update). RACQ’s Ian Jeffreys forecasts peak within 10 days of restoration, meaning peak lands somewhere between today and Friday 13 August. So peak is 2 to 4 days away.
Tuesday tactical actions. First, before you leave the driveway check Fuel Check NSW, FuelWatch WA, FuelCheck TAS, MyFuel NT, MotorMouth or PetrolSpy. The cheapest-to-most-expensive gap in metro Sydney remains at 60 cents per litre. Second, if your vehicle handbook allows a grade drop from Premium 98 to U91 or E10, NRMA data has the grade spread at a record 26 point 5 cents per litre. On a 55-litre fill that is 14 dollars 60 cents saved. Third, if you can lock a 7-day price with 7-Eleven Fuel Lock, do it before Wednesday morning. On a peak week a 20 cent per litre difference on 55 litres is 11 dollars.
CommBank FY26 Result Tomorrow
Commonwealth Bank of Australia releases its FY26 full-year result at 9:30am AEST Wednesday 12 August, per the CBA financial calendar. The 1H26 interim dividend was 2 dollars 35 cents fully franked, up 4 per cent on 1H25. IG’s FY26 earnings preview on 4 August forecasts a final dividend of approximately 2 dollars 65 cents fully franked, taking the FY26 total to around 5 dollars 05 cents (up from 4 dollars 85 cents PCP). Ex-dividend date is 19 August 2026, record date 20 August, payment date 29 September 2026.
What Australian shopper households should watch beyond the dividend headline. First, mortgage impairment guidance for the 3 million CBA home-loan households: any deterioration in loan-book quality or provisioning signals stress that discretionary spending would feel. Second, retail deposit growth (the household savings buffer). Third, credit card and buy-now-pay-later balance trends. CBA does not touch itsonsale.com.au deals directly, but the household budget signals in the FY26 report shape retailer pricing decisions for the September-November lead-up to Christmas.
Tuesday Top 5 Deals
Discount
Princess PollyWomen's WearUp to 80 per cent off Princess Polly: dresses, tops, jeans, knits, coats, activewear and shoes from the Gold Coast founded Australian womens fashion brand launched in 2010, with Afterpay, Zip and free Australia wide shipping over 50 dollars.80%OFF2
Baku SwimwearBeachwearUp to 70 per cent off Baku Swimwear: bikinis, one pieces, resort wear, cover ups and swim accessories from the Sydney based Australian womens swim label since 1998, with Afterpay and free Australia wide shipping over 100 dollars.70%OFF3
GazmanMen's WearUp to 60 per cent off Gazman: mens shirts, tailoring, chinos, knitwear, jackets and accessories from the Australian owned mens fashion brand since 1975, with Afterpay, Zip and free Australia wide shipping over 100 dollars.60%OFF4
Graham'sHomewaresUp to 60 per cent off Graham’s Jewellers: engagement rings, wedding bands, diamond jewellery, watches and gifts from the Australian family owned jeweller since 1949, with Afterpay, Zip and free Australia wide shipping.60%OFF5
TelstraTelecommunicationsUp to 50 per cent off Telstra: mobile plans, prepaid phones, home internet bundles, smart home devices, entertainment plans and Telstra Plus rewards from Australia’s largest telecommunications company since 1901, with Australian based customer support and click and collect from 350 plus retail stores.50%OFFEvery store in Tuesday’s Top 5 is Australian owned or locally fulfilled. Every discount was verified against the store’s own live sale page this morning. None of it is Temu, Shein, AliExpress, Wish or any offshore marketplace dressed up as a local brand. Every product ships from an Australian warehouse and is backed by the Australian Consumer Law. Princess Polly leads today at up to 80 per cent off dresses, tops, jeans, knits, coats, activewear and shoes from the Gold Coast founded Australian womens fashion brand launched in 2010. Baku Swimwear follows at up to 70 per cent off bikinis, one pieces, resort wear and cover ups from the Sydney based Australian swim label since 1998. Gazman at up to 60 per cent off delivers mens shirts, tailoring, chinos, knitwear, jackets and accessories from the Australian owned mens fashion brand since 1975. Graham’s Jewellers at up to 60 per cent off holds engagement rings, wedding bands, diamond jewellery, watches and gifts from the Australian family owned jeweller since 1949. Telstra at up to 50 per cent off closes the Top 5 with mobile plans, prepaid phones, home internet bundles, smart home devices and entertainment plans from Australia’s largest telecommunications company since 1901.
Other Deals Worth A Look
Beyond the Top 5, a handful of other Australian owned or locally fulfilled retailers are worth a Tuesday scroll. General Pants (today’s Top 6 ticker pick) holds up to 40 per cent off streetwear, denim, sneakers, tees and outerwear from the Sydney founded Australian youth fashion retailer since 1972. Veronika Maine continues at 30 per cent off tailoring, dresses and coats from the Sydney founded contemporary womens label. MyHouse continues its up to 50 per cent off homewares run. Williams Shoes is at 30 per cent off leather boots and business footwear. All Australian owned or locally fulfilled, all backed by the Australian Consumer Law.
Week Ahead
Four dates matter for Australian shopper wallets across the rest of this week. Tuesday 11 August 9:30am AEST: Governor Bullock testifies to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics. 11:30am AEST: NAB Business Confidence for July release. 2:30pm AEST: RBA cash rate decision, priced at 96 per cent hold, followed by Governor Bullock’s 3:30pm press conference and the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy. Wednesday 12 August 9:30am AEST: Commonwealth Bank FY26 full-year result and dividend announcement, watch the mortgage-book impairment guidance and the final dividend size (IG forecasts 2 dollars 65 cents fully franked). Thursday 13 August 11:30am AEST: unemployment data for July release (last was 4 point 3 per cent). Between Friday 15 August and Wednesday 20 August: retailer spring stock transition begins across major fashion, footwear and homewares categories, closing the winter clearance window.
Our Take
Tuesday 11 August is the pivot day. The RBA holds at 2:30pm this afternoon, all four majors aligned, 96 per cent priced. That removes household mortgage anxiety for another 6 weeks and gives shopper confidence a marginal lift. Business confidence, meanwhile, is at record lows across all six states, and retailer margin pressure is producing genuinely deep final-winter clearance today. Fuel remains the sharpest weekly wallet drag, 5-city petrol averaging 208 cents per litre with peak 2 to 4 days away and the U91 to Premium 98 grade spread at a record 26 point 5 cents per litre. CommBank’s FY26 result tomorrow morning delivers the last major household-budget signal before spring stock lands from Friday. This is the last full discount week on winter apparel, boots, thermals, coats, homewares and small appliances at Australian retailers. From Friday, floor space transitions to spring, and today’s headline discounts on remaining winter stock are the deepest of the year.
That is exactly why It’s On Sale exists. We track 35,000 Australian stores and 45,000 live sale products, every retailer Australian owned or locally fulfilled, every promotion audited daily against the store’s own price history. No trial traps, no hidden fees, no offshore marketplaces dressed up as a local brand. Today’s Sales shows every store currently running a discount in one place. The AI search reads the way real shoppers ask (try “winter coat clearance” or “swimwear sale”). None of it is Temu, Shein, AliExpress, Wish or any offshore marketplace dressed up as a local brand. Browse Today’s Sales this Tuesday morning to hit the final winter clearance week at Australian retailers who stand behind the ticket and the Australian Consumer Law.