Thursday, and the reporting season baton passes from bank to telco. Telstra Group releases its FY26 full year result at 9:15am AEST this morning: FY26 EBITDAaL guidance sits at 8 point 2 to 8 point 4 billion dollars, cash EBIT guidance at 4 point 55 to 4 point 75 billion dollars, and the market is watching for a buyback extension after the 1 billion dollars announced last August. Yesterday CommBank landed cash NPAT of 11 billion dollars, up 7 per cent, and declared a full year dividend of 5 dollars 5 cents fully franked, up 4 per cent, but shares still fell 0 point 6 per cent to 172 dollars 87 cents at 28 times price to earnings, and ex dividend is Tuesday 19 August, just six days away. Tomorrow Friday 14 August at 11:30am AEST the ABS drops the July Labour Force Survey with Trading Economics forecasting unemployment at 4 point 5 per cent, up from June’s 4 point 4 per cent. Fuel Day 11 today, retail petrol cycle at or through peak on 5 city average of 207 point 5 cents per litre and diesel 246 cents per litre, with the ACCC 23rd weekly monitoring report due today or tomorrow. Today is the final full winter clearance day at major retailers before spring floor sets tomorrow Friday 15 August. Today’s Top 5 opens with Mossman at up to 70 per cent off womens contemporary fashion from the Melbourne based label, followed by Hallensteins at up to 50 per cent off mens tees, hoodies, denim and knits.
Telstra FY26 Result Landing at 9:15am AEST
Telstra Group releases its FY26 full year result to the ASX at 9:15am AEST this morning, per the Telstra investor relations page. The 1H26 half year result already banked FY26 revenue excluding financing of 11 billion 641 million dollars, underlying EBITDAaL of 4 billion 185 million dollars, and a 1H26 interim dividend of 10 point 5 cents per share 90 point 5 per cent franked, per GO Markets FY26 result preview. Full year EBITDAaL guidance sits at 8 point 2 to 8 point 4 billion dollars and cash EBIT guidance at 4 billion 550 to 4 billion 750 million dollars. Intelligent Investor’s FY26 forecast per their TLS page is NPAT 2 billion 415 million dollars, EPS 20 point 90 cents, and DPS 19 cents fully franked, a 4 per cent lift on FY25.
What Australian shopper households should watch beyond the headline dividend. First, postpaid mobile ARPU direction: 1H26 postpaid ARPU printed at 56 dollars 22 cents, up 4 point 8 per cent year on year on the back of the July 2025 CPI-linked mobile price rise, and FY26 FY guidance will confirm whether Telstra models a CPI-plus price rise for FY27 too. Second, buyback extension size: last August Telstra announced a 1 billion dollar buyback for FY26 on top of February’s 750 million dollar tranche, and any FY27 buyback announcement lifts the 1 point 5 million retail shareholder dividend yield. Third, NBN reseller margins and enterprise softness. Fourth, InfraCo Fixed Line separation update timeline. For Australian mobile customers the practical takeaway is that Telstra is likely to guide for another mid single digit ARPU lift in FY27, meaning postpaid plans continue to migrate upward.
CommBank FY26 Aftermath: Shares Down, Dividend Locked, Ex Div Next Tuesday
Yesterday Commonwealth Bank of Australia landed its FY26 full year result at 9:30am AEST with a full year cash NPAT of 11 billion dollars, up 7 per cent, statutory NPAT of 10 billion 910 million dollars, up 8 per cent, and a full year dividend of 5 dollars 5 cents per share fully franked (final dividend 2 dollars 70 cents on top of the 2 dollars 35 cents interim), per the CBA FY26 ASX announcement. Sebastian Bowen at The Motley Fool Australia on 12 August reported shares closed at 172 dollars 87 cents, down 0 point 6 per cent on the day, at a forward price to earnings ratio of 28 times, roughly in line with the ASX 200’s 0 point 5 per cent close at 9,209.
Approximately 800,000 CBA retail shareholders, most of them Australian household savers who own the stock directly or through their SMSF, have three key dates on the calendar. Ex dividend date is Tuesday 19 August 2026, just six days from today. Record date is Wednesday 20 August. DRP election deadline is Thursday 21 August. Payment date is Monday 29 September. That 5 dollars 5 cents fully franked pays out to approximately 800,000 Australian retail investors on 29 September, an injection of over 4 billion dollars into household spending accounts in the September quarter, most of it spent locally on discretionary purchases, insurance renewals and mortgage extra repayments. The full CBA FY26 investor presentation lands the story: pre-provision profit rose 6 per cent to 16 billion 500 million dollars, net interest margin lifted 3 basis points to 2 point 05 per cent, and operating expenses rose 6 per cent to 13 billion 755 million dollars. Every household with a CBA transaction account is effectively paying for that expense line growth in monthly account fees and interest spreads.
Jobs Data Tomorrow: The Number That Sets the RBA Tone
The Australian Bureau of Statistics releases the July Labour Force Survey tomorrow Friday 14 August 2026 at 11:30am AEST, per the ABS Labour Force calendar. June printed at 4 point 4 per cent unemployment (unrounded 4 point 35 per cent), 76,000 more people employed month on month and participation at a one year high of 67 point 0 per cent. Trading Economics forecasts July at 4 point 5 per cent, up 0 point 1 percentage point.
The consequence chain for Australian shopper households runs through interest rates. Two days ago the RBA held the cash rate at 4 point 35 per cent but Governor Bullock struck a hawkish tone, warning it was “quite possible we might need to go” and that “interest rates might need to stay high for longer”. Swap markets priced a 50 per cent chance of a November hike overnight. If July prints AT OR ABOVE 4 point 5 per cent, weakening jobs momentum removes wage inflation pressure and pushes the November hike odds materially lower. If July prints BELOW 4 point 4 per cent with continued strong employment growth, the RBA’s hawkish stance converts into a real November hike and 3 point 3 million mortgaged households face a fourth rate rise this year. That is why retailers are running some of the deepest winter clearance markdowns of the year in the final 24 hours before spring floor rolls out Friday. Margin pressure is being priced today.
Fuel Day 11: At or Through the Retail Peak
Today is Day 11 of full fuel excise restoration. Petroleum tax jumped from 20 point 6 cents per litre in April to June, to 36 point 6 cents per litre between 1 July and 2 August (partial), to the full 53 point 7 cents per litre from 3 August, per the Australian Taxation Office. The ACCC 22nd weekly fuel price monitoring report to 5 August shows 5-city retail petrol at 207 point 5 cents per litre and diesel at 246 cents per litre, with capital city retail petrol 37 cents per litre above pre-conflict levels and diesel 71 cents per litre above pre-conflict, per FuelPlan.gov.au. The ACCC 23rd weekly report is due today or tomorrow and will confirm whether the retail petrol cycle peaked Wednesday, Thursday or Friday. RACQ’s Ian Jeffreys forecast peak within 10 days of full restoration, which is today.
Thursday tactical actions for Australian drivers. First, before you leave the driveway check Fuel Check NSW, FuelWatch WA, FuelCheck TAS, MyFuel NT, MotorMouth or PetrolSpy. The cheapest to most expensive gap in metro Sydney remains at 60 cents per litre. Second, if your vehicle handbook allows a grade drop from Premium 98 to U91 or E10, NRMA data has the grade spread at a record 26 point 5 cents per litre. On a 55-litre fill that is 14 dollars 60 cents saved per tank. Third, lock a 7-day price with 7-Eleven Fuel Lock before Friday morning. On a peak week a 20 cent per litre gap on 55 litres saved is 11 dollars per fill. If the ACCC 23rd weekly confirms Thursday or Friday as peak, tomorrow’s fills are the last high fills before the retail cycle begins its slow descent.
Retail Electricity Notes: AGL and Origin FY26
Yesterday the two big-two energy retailers delivered FY26 results. AGL Energy landed underlying EBITDA of 2 point 1 billion dollars (up 2 per cent), underlying NPAT of 631 million dollars (down 2 per cent), statutory NPAT of 756 million dollars, and operating free cash flow of 850 million dollars (up 60 per cent). Final dividend of 26 cents per share fully franked brings the FY26 total to 50 cents, up 4 point 2 per cent on FY25. AGL cited strong operational performance, disciplined capital allocation and battery growth offsetting mild winter volatility, per Investing.com’s read of the AGL FY26 slides. Origin Energy also reported yesterday with statutory profit of 557 million dollars for the first half, underlying EBITDA of 1 billion 589 million dollars, and an interim dividend of 30 cents per share fully franked per the Origin H1 26 earnings call transcript. Origin upgraded Energy Markets EBITDA guidance to 1 point 55 to 1 point 75 billion dollars.
For Australian shopper households the useful takeaway is not the dividend, it is the market signal. Both AGL and Origin are guiding for continued strong retail electricity margins driven by higher wholesale costs passed through in default market offers, but neither is aggressively cutting bills. The best household strategy remains identical to the fuel playbook: shop the plan every 90 days on the government price comparison sites (Energy Made Easy for NSW, QLD, SA, TAS, ACT; Victorian Energy Compare for VIC), and switch when the introductory discount rolls off. The average household saves 300 to 500 dollars per year on electricity by switching every 12 months.
Thursday Top 5 Deals
Discount
MossmanWomen's WearUp to 70 per cent off Mossman: dresses, knits, blouses, tops, pants, coats and accessories from the Melbourne based Australian womens contemporary fashion label founded by Melissa Trethowan, with Afterpay, Zip and free Australia wide shipping over 100 dollars.70%OFF2
HallensteinsMen's WearUp to 50 per cent off Hallensteins: mens tees, hoodies, shirts, jeans, chinos, jackets, knits and accessories from the New Zealand and Australia based mens fashion retailer with local Australian fulfilment, Afterpay, Zip and free Australia wide shipping over 80 dollars.50%OFF3
Healthy LifeHealth & BeautyUp to 50 per cent off Healthy Life: vitamins, supplements, protein powders, superfoods, natural skincare, organic pantry and wellness essentials from the family owned Australian health retailer since 1974, with Afterpay, Zip and free Australia wide shipping over 100 dollars.50%OFF4
MacpacOutdoor & CampingUp to 50 per cent off Macpac: down jackets, thermals, hiking pants, base layers, tents, sleeping bags and outdoor gear from the New Zealand and Australia based technical outdoor brand since 1973 with a strong Australian retail footprint, Afterpay and free shipping over 100 dollars.50%OFF5
Merchant 1948FootwearUp to 50 per cent off Merchant 1948: leather boots, ankle boots, brogues, loafers, sneakers and accessories from the New Zealand and Australia based independent footwear specialist since 1948 with Australian retail stores and Afterpay, free Australia wide shipping over 150 dollars.50%OFFEvery store in Thursday’s Top 5 is Australian owned or locally fulfilled. Every discount was verified against the store’s own live sale page this morning. None of it is Temu, Shein, AliExpress, Wish or any offshore marketplace dressed up as a local brand. Every product ships from an Australian warehouse and is backed by the Australian Consumer Law. Mossman leads today at up to 70 per cent off dresses, knits, blouses, tops, pants and coats from the Melbourne based Australian womens contemporary fashion label founded by Melissa Trethowan. Hallensteins follows at up to 50 per cent off mens tees, hoodies, shirts, jeans, chinos and jackets from the New Zealand and Australia based mens fashion retailer with local Australian fulfilment. Healthy Life at up to 50 per cent off delivers vitamins, supplements, protein powders, superfoods, organic pantry and wellness essentials from the family owned Australian health retailer since 1974. Macpac at up to 50 per cent off runs deep on down jackets, thermals, hiking pants, base layers, tents and sleeping bags from the New Zealand and Australia based technical outdoor brand since 1973. Merchant 1948 at up to 50 per cent off closes the Top 5 with leather boots, ankle boots, brogues, loafers and sneakers from the New Zealand and Australia based independent footwear specialist since 1948.
Other Deals Worth A Look
Beyond the Top 5, a handful of other Australian owned or locally fulfilled retailers are worth a Thursday scroll. MyHouse (today’s Top 6 ticker pick) holds up to 50 per cent off homewares, bedding, bath, kitchen and decor from the Australian family owned homewares brand since 1979. P.E Nation at 30 per cent off delivers technical activewear, hoodies, joggers and tees from the Sydney founded contemporary activewear label. Veronika Maine continues at 30 per cent off tailoring, dresses and coats from the Sydney founded contemporary womens label. All Australian owned or locally fulfilled, all backed by the Australian Consumer Law.
Week Ahead
Three dates matter for Australian shopper wallets across the rest of this week. Thursday 13 August 9:15am AEST: Telstra Group FY26 full year result, watch buyback extension, postpaid ARPU direction and dividend size (Intelligent Investor forecast 19 cents fully franked). Friday 14 August 11:30am AEST: ABS Labour Force Survey for July release. Trading Economics forecast 4 point 5 per cent unemployment, up 0 point 1 percentage point. Friday 15 August: retailer spring stock transition window OPENS at major fashion, footwear and homewares categories, closing the winter clearance window. Tuesday 19 August: CBA ex dividend date, 5 dollars 5 cents fully franked payout hits accounts on 29 September.
Our Take
Thursday 13 August is the day the reporting-season baton passes from bank to telco, with Telstra FY26 at 9:15am AEST setting the tone for the rest of the week. Yesterday CBA banked 11 billion dollars cash NPAT and locked in a 5 dollars 5 cents fully franked dividend, but shares still fell 0 point 6 per cent to 172 dollars 87 cents at 28 times price to earnings: the message is that the growth story is priced. Tomorrow’s July jobs data at 11:30am AEST is the single biggest data drop this week for the mortgage repayment outlook. Fuel remains the sharpest weekly wallet drag, 5-city petrol at 207 point 5 cents per litre with today or Friday the likely retail peak. This is the FINAL FULL winter clearance day at Australian retailers. From tomorrow Friday 15 August floor space transitions to spring, and today’s headline discounts on remaining winter stock are the deepest and last full-choice window of the year. If a winter jacket, boots, thermals or a heavier knit is on the wardrobe list, today is the day.
That is exactly why It’s On Sale exists. We track 35,000 Australian stores and 45,000 live sale products, every retailer Australian owned or locally fulfilled, every promotion audited daily against the store’s own price history. No trial traps, no hidden fees, no offshore marketplaces dressed up as a local brand. Today’s Sales shows every store currently running a discount in one place. The AI search reads the way real shoppers ask (try “winter coat clearance” or “leather boots on sale”). None of it is Temu, Shein, AliExpress, Wish or any offshore marketplace dressed up as a local brand. Browse Today’s Sales this Thursday morning to hit the final winter clearance day at Australian retailers who stand behind the ticket and the Australian Consumer Law.