July Jobs Land at 11:30 as Discretionary Retail Cracks and Roy Morgan Tips a $40 Billion August. | It s On Sale Daily Brief, 20 August 2026

Neil Fairhead

CEO, It’s On Sale

Thursday is jobs day for Australian households. The ABS releases the July Labour Force Survey at 11:30am AEST, the single biggest data point ahead of the RBA 22 to 23 September meeting, with June s 4 point 4 per cent unemployment and 76,300 job surge as the baseline. The Sydney Morning Herald reports the consumer discretionary index has fallen more than 5 per cent in the past five days as JB Hi-Fi CEO Nick Wells warns he sees no signs of consumer recovery. Solomon Lew has shut all three Peter Alexander UK stores and cut Premier FY26 profit guidance to 176 million dollars. Roy Morgan tips August retail to hit a record 40 billion dollars. Today s Top 5 opens with Mossman at 70 per cent off, then Hallensteins, Healthy Life, House and Macpac.

Jobs Day: The ABS July Labour Force at 11:30 is the RBA September Pivot

At 11:30am AEST the ABS releases the July 2026 Labour Force Survey, and this is the print the Reserve Bank has been waiting for since the June result. The June baseline set an aggressive bar: unemployment at 4 point 4 per cent (up 0 point 1 percentage points from May s rounded 4 point 3), employment plus 76,300 (the strongest print since April 2025 and led by plus 47,000 part time), participation at 67 per cent (a one year high) and underemployment at 6 point 5 per cent (the highest since August 2024). Reuters summed up the market reaction: bond yields snapped higher and rate cut bets thinned, but not enough to remove the September cut from money market pricing.

Westpac IQ s July preview expects unemployment steady at 4 point 4 per cent, employment plus 15,000 and participation at 66 point 9 per cent. Any soft print (unemployment above 4 point 5 per cent, or employment below plus 5,000) would sharpen September rate cut expectations and typically translates within four weeks into deeper Everyday Rewards, Flybuys and MYER one targeted offers. Any strong print (unemployment 4 point 3 or lower) would push the cut into November and floor set discount depth for spring collections would narrow. Diarise 11:30 in your app of choice, this one flows straight into the mortgage and the retail promotion calendar.

Retailers on the Ropes: JB Hi-Fi Sees No Recovery, Discretionary Down 5 Per Cent in Five Days

Consumer discretionary retailers are having a very rough week. The Sydney Morning Herald reports that over the past five days the ASX consumer discretionary index has fallen more than 5 per cent compared with the ASX200 which is 1 point 7 per cent softer, with earnings misses and downgrades from Premier Investments, Beacon Lighting, JB Hi-Fi and Baby Bunting driving the sell off. JB Hi-Fi CEO Nick Wells told the market he is seeing no signs of consumer recovery as the combined impact of higher interest rates and the reversal in the nation s runaway property market post Budget make shoppers nervous.

The pattern is a two speed retail sector: staples and hardware are holding up (Coles, Woolworths, Bunnings, Kmart all reporting next week), while discretionary categories from fashion to electronics to homewares are cracking. For Australian shoppers this dynamic means one thing: winter to spring floor set changeovers this week are running deeper discounts than a typical August, particularly across women s wear, footwear and homewares. That is why today s Top 5 has three categories over 50 per cent off and Mossman leading at 70 per cent.

Solomon Lew Shuts Peter Alexander UK, Cuts Premier FY26 Guidance

Premier Investments announced on 12 August the closure of all three Peter Alexander UK stores at Bluewater, Stratford and White City after less than two years, becoming the latest Australian retailer to retreat from the tough British market, per the Australian Financial Review. Chairman Solomon Lew said discretionary retail conditions had deteriorated in the second half and that the group would channel Peter Alexander growth capital into Australia and New Zealand instead. Peter Alexander will keep selling to UK customers online.

The trading update also cut FY26 guidance. Premier Retail full year sales came in at 795 point 5 million dollars (down 2 per cent on FY25) and underlying EBIT guidance was revised down to approximately 176 million dollars (from the 183 million target set in March 2026), per Yahoo Finance. A separate Heads of Agreement was announced for Peter Alexander to return to Myer as a concession partner across 24 stores, per Stockwirex coverage. For sleepwear shoppers watching Peter Alexander pricing, expect the UK inventory clearance to feed into Australian promotions through late August and September.

Amazon Back In Court: Two Live Federal Matters

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission has two live Federal Court proceedings against Amazon that will bear on Australian Prime subscribers and marketplace shoppers through 2026 and 2027. The first, filed in June 2026, alleges Amazon Australia included five unfair contract terms in Prime subscription contracts with more than one million annual subscribers between November 2023 and August 2025, and relied on those terms to introduce advertising to Prime Video in July 2024, requiring subscribers to pay an additional 2 dollars 99 per month to remain ad free. The case is tracked by the Australian Financial Review, with maximum penalty per contravention the highest of 50 million dollars, three times the benefit obtained, or 30 per cent of adjusted turnover during the breach period.

The second proceeding, filed 29 May 2026 as NSD905 of 2026 in the Federal Court New South Wales Registry, is the first time the ACCC has taken an online marketplace to Federal Court over a mandatory product safety standard. The ACCC concise statement alleges 41 non compliant Unicorn Toddler Backpacks (containing detachable button battery light up unicorn toys without mandatory warning labels) were sold through amazon.com.au and 267 were held in Amazon s Australian fulfilment centres as of 1 November 2022. The ACCC argues that under section 136 subsection 3 of the Australian Consumer Law, mere possession or control of non compliant goods is enough to put the marketplace itself on the hook. If successful, this reshapes marketplace safety liability for every Fulfilment by Amazon third party seller in Australia.

Week Ahead: Coles Tuesday 25, Woolies Wednesday 26, Wesfarmers Thursday 28

Next week is peak reporting week for consumer facing groups. Coles Group hands down FY26 on Tuesday 25 August (media call 9:15am), with the IG earnings preview tracking consensus around 45 dollar 63 billion in sales, EBIT around 2 dollar 30 billion and final dividend per share around 43 cents (FY26 total DPS around 77 cents). H1 already delivered supermarkets EBIT up 14 point 6 per cent and group EBITDA up 7 point 8 per cent to 2 point 2 billion dollars, but the stock fell 8 point 34 per cent on the day, so watch second half momentum commentary closely.

Woolworths Group follows Wednesday 26 August (see the Woolworths investor page), and Wesfarmers reports Thursday 28 August with Bunnings, Kmart and Officeworks the swing divisions, per the Wesfarmers investor centre. H1 Wesfarmers already showed group revenue up 3 point 1 per cent to 24 point 2 billion dollars and NPAT up 9 point 3 per cent to 1 point 6 billion. All three groups use FY presentations to signal price investment for the following six months, so watch commentary from Coles, Woolies and Wesfarmers for grocery, Bunnings hardware and Kmart apparel price signals.

Roy Morgan: August Retail Tipped to Hit a Record 40 Billion Dollars

Roy Morgan yesterday forecast total monthly Australian retail sales to hit 40 billion dollars for the first time ever in August 2026, up 6 per cent year on year, per Ragtrader coverage. By category, food (supermarkets) leads at 15 point 6 billion dollars (plus 4 point 6 per cent, 39 per cent of the total), other retailing including hairdressers at 7 billion (plus 5 point 7 per cent), household goods at 6 point 7 billion (plus 8 point 8 per cent, the fastest growing), hospitality at 5 point 9 billion (plus 6 point 2 per cent), fashion at 3 point 06 billion (plus 5 point 7 per cent), and department stores the slowest growing at 1 point 66 billion (plus 2 point 3 per cent).

By state Western Australia leads at plus 7 point 2 per cent to 4 point 8 billion dollars, followed by Northern Territory plus 7 point 6 per cent, South Australia plus 6 point 4 per cent, New South Wales plus 6 point 1 per cent to 12 billion, Victoria plus 5 point 9 per cent to 9 point 9 billion and Queensland plus 5 point 5 per cent to 8 point 8 billion. The bifurcation is stark: staples and household goods are compounding hard while discretionary and department stores drag, which is exactly why today s Top 5 rewards hunters who move fast on Homewares (House at 50 per cent off) and Outdoor and Camping (Macpac at 50 per cent off) before the September floor sets rotate.